10-year Treasury yield leaps after June jobs figures are much better than forecast

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield advanced on Thursday after June’s nonfarm payroll report came in hotter than anticipated.

The benchmark 10-year yield rose more than 5 basis points to 4.346%. The 30-year bond yield added more than 3 basis points, sitting at 4.861%. The 2-year Treasury yield advanced more than 9 basis points to 3.886%.

One basis point is equal to 0.01%, and yields move inversely to prices.

U.S. payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, beating the consensus forecast of 110,000 from economists polled by Dow Jones. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%.

Thursday’s release eased fears about weakness in the labor market after the ADP payrolls report from a day prior showed that private sector hiring decreased by 33,000 last month. The new stats could empower the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady at the July gathering given the lack of a clear disruption to the job market.

“While many will not want to believe this solidifies a strong labor market, especially on the backs of a negative ADP print, what this print does solidify is the Fed does not have the data to contemplate a cut in July,” said Lara Castleton, U.S. head of portfolio construction and strategy at Janus Henderson Investors. “Bond markets are, therefore, repricing yields higher, and investors should continue with the mindset of higher for longer.”

Investors are also keeping an eye on Trump’s “one big beautiful bill,” which passed the Senate on Tuesday and has now returned to the House, where some Republican lawmakers remain fiercely opposed to it. The mega spending bill is expected to add $3.3 trillion to the fiscal deficit over the next decade.

On the trade front, Trump announced on Truth Social that the U.S. had come to a deal with Vietnam, which includes a 20% tariffs on imports from the country. Goods that were manufactured in another country, but were transferred to Vietnam before final shipment to the U.S., will face a levy of 40%.

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