Market likely to struggle this week but head towards new highs

The Vietnamese stock market posted a positive week last week, with the VN-Index officially surpassing the key psychological level of 1,200 points. Experts expect that the market may struggle this week but gradually head toward new highs. 

The Hồ Chí Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE) ended last week at 1,207.67 points, hitting a ten-month high, while the HNX-Index on the Hà Nội Stock Exchange (HNX) was at 237.54 points. 

Both benchmark indices set another weekly gain, of which the VN-Index climbed 1.1 per cent, gaining for the fourth consecutive week. The HNX-Index rose for the third week in a row, up 1.1 per cent. 

Liquidity increased strongly with the average trading value of the market up 15.5 per cent over the previous week to more than VNĐ23.5 trillion (US$992.1 million).

Foreign investors net bought VNĐ792 billion on the southern bourse, a decrease of 31.3 per cent.

According to the Saigon - Hanoi Securities JSC (SHS), the macro-economy, in general, is not showing many positive changes but not getting worse.

The US Federal Reserve decided on another rate hike last week, but US GDP data posted a better-than-expected result in the second quarter. Meanwhile, the Chinese government also announced measures to stimulate its economy after its recovery cooled post-COVID-19.

In addition, HNX officially opened its private corporate bond system, while the State Securities Commission of Vietnam (SSC) is focusing on finding solutions to upgrade the stock market from a frontier to an emerging market. 

At the end of August, a seminar will be held in Hong Kong (China) to work with rating agencies to assess the possibility of the upgrade, according to Vũ Thị Chân Phương, Chairwoman of SSC.

SHS said that the private bond exchange would strengthen the market's transparency and publicity, and create liquidity, but it would take more time for the market to stabilise and develop again. 

In the last six months of 2023, the total value of bonds maturity is up to VNĐ158.5 trillion, of which 51 per cent is from the real estate industry. 

Similarly, VNDirect Securities Corporation said that the country's stock market maintained the uptrend momentum thanks to the recovery signals of some listed companies' business results in the second quarter and positive news related to the Fed meeting. 

Fed continued to increase interest rates after pausing in June, but the central bank's policymakers are no longer expecting a recession but a soft landing for the economy.

The news together with bullish investor sentiment after the market gained for consecutive weeks supported the VN-Index to break over the psychological resistance of 1,200 points despite some strong corrections. 

The securities firm believes that the market has experienced a long streak of weekly gain and was overbought, so investors should be cautious and avoid the fear of missing out (FOMO).

SHS said that the market would continue to perform well in the short-term, but would face fluctuations. As a result, short-term investors should be cautious and only disburse at correction sessions. In the medium- to long-term, the market would likely form an uptrend and the benchmark VN-Index's next target would be the zone of 1,300 points. — VNS 

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