#1 Highlights from the "Vietnam Credit Spotlight 2025" Conference - Economic Outlook and Vietnam Sovereign Rating

The "Vietnam Credit Spotlight 2025" conference provided in-depth analyses of the Vietnam’s economic outlook and strategies to enhance its sovereign credit rating - one of the key factors in improving Vietnam’s access to capital, attracting investment, and strengthening its position in the global financial market.

The "Vietnam Credit Spotlight 2025" conference provided in-depth analyses of the Vietnam’s economic outlook and strategies to enhance its sovereign credit rating - one of the key factors in improving Vietnam’s access to capital, attracting investment, and strengthening its position in the global financial market. Amidst global economic volatility, maintaining sustainable growth, enhancing competitiveness, and ensuring financial market stability are not only urgent requirements but also essential foundations for Vietnam’s long-term development goals. 

During the first discussion on Vietnam’s Economic Outlook and Sovereign Rating, senior speakers provided valuable insights into growth potential, macroeconomic challenges, and key factors influencing the country’s credit rating. The session was expertly moderated by Ms. Trinh Quynh Giao, CEO of PVI Asset Management, alongside two distinguished speakers: 

• Mr. Andrew Wood, Director of Sovereign Ratings, S&P Global Ratings 

• Mr. Louis Kuijs, Chief Economist for Asia-Pacific, S&P Global Ratings 

Source: FiinRatings

Solid Growth Foundations and Influencing Factors 

Vietnam has seen solid growth and development in recent decades. GDP growth averaged 6.2% in the past 10 years despite the pandemic. The country followed the successful export-oriented approach of East Asian economies. In Vietnam's case the export success has been based on inward foreign direct investment (FDI), as was the case in China, in the early stages of its post-1978 development. In 2024, Vietnam's exports equaled 79% of GDP, and registered FDI 8% of GDP.

According to Mr. Louis Kuijs, Chief Economist for Asia-Pacific, S&P Global Ratings, the outlook remains broadly positive. Vietnam is challenged by the risk of US trade tariffs, given its sizeable bilateral goods trade surplus with the U.S. More generally, Vietnam's trade dependency exposes it to the headwinds to globalization. Nonetheless, economic prospects remain solid. "We expect around 6.5% GDP growth in the coming three years, implying that Vietnam will vie with India for the title of fastest-growing Asian economy."

Source: FiinRatings

In the medium and long term, Vietnam's challenge is how to move up the value chain, towards the production of higher value-added manufacturing and services. If Vietnam can make progress in areas such as increasing involvement of domestic firms in global value chains, strengthening the business environment and increasing competition in services industries, and raising the skill level of the workforce, the country should be able to continue to grow and develop robustly.

Credit Ratings: Unlocking Access to Global Capital Markets 

According to Mr. Andrew Wood, Director of Sovereign Ratings at S&P Global Ratings: "Our sovereign credit ratings on Vietnam are underpinned by the country’s strong economic growth, moderate government debt levels, and generally sound external debt position. Vietnam’s stable policy settings and positive trade orientation attract consistently high investment from multi-national corporations, maintaining the foundation for rapid economic development. 

An uncertain geopolitical environment and potentially acute trade frictions pose near-term risks to Vietnam’s otherwise healthy economic prospects. We see Vietnam’s external buffers as sufficient to tide through cyclical trade disruptions, and consider the government’s balance sheet to be well-positioned for potential fiscal challenges. The continued maturation of Vietnam’s institutional settings, sustained fiscal policy improvements, or a much stronger trade and investment performance over the coming years would add further support to Vietnam’s sovereign credit profile."
 
With a stable macroeconomic foundation and an open trade policy, Vietnam has the opportunity to upgrade its credit rating to Investment Grade before 2030. Achieving this milestone would enable Vietnam to access international financing under more favorable conditions, drive the development of its financial markets, and pave the way for further progress on the global economic map.

The next sessions at the "Vietnam Credit Spotlight 2025" conference will continue to explore key factors in financial market development and risk management strategies, providing practical solutions to help Vietnam advance further on the global economic map.

For further details:

• Analyst presentations at the event (Vietnamese version): HERE 

• Analyst presentations at the event (English version): HERE

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The "Vietnam Credit Spotlight 2025" Recap Series summarizes key insights from the conference, offering in-depth perspectives on economic outlook, credit ratings, banking systems, corporate performance, and capital markets. This series serves as a valuable resource for businesses and investors looking to shape their strategies in the evolving economic landscape.

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About FiinRatings 
FiinRatings, a member of FiinGroup and technical partner of S&P Global Ratings, is a licensed credit rating agency under Vietnam’s Ministry of Finance. Our services include credit ratings, green bond verification, and independent evaluations (Second Party Opinion - SPO), catering to issuers, lenders, and investors across diverse sectors in Vietnam. 

FiinRatings’ SPO services provide independent evaluations of financial instruments, policy frameworks, or transactions aligned with principles set by global institutions like the International Capital Market Association (ICMA) and the Climate Bonds Initiative (CBI). Notably, FiinRatings is the first approved verifier for CBI Climate Bond Standards in Vietnam. 

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