#FIINPRO TALK #5: FORMING YOUR INVESTMENT VIEW 2018- VNINDEX 2018 FORECAST
StoxPlus organized FiinPro® Training Workshop #5 on January 13 in Hanoi with over 100 participants from securities companies, banks, insurance companies and investment funds. The workshop is among StoxPlus’s value added services to help FiinPro® users in investment research, stock screening and generating investment ideas.
Vietnam stock market had an interesting story in 2017 with 48% growth in VN-Index and this outperformed significantly its regional peers as emerging markets to rank top 3 in the world. The growth was driven not only by the recent strong macroeconomic conditions of Vietnam but also by the surge of money flows, increase of bank stocks, beverages and more.
The questions to many analysts, fund managers and investors today is whether this is a cyclical factor or whether it will continue to be a precondition for stronger growth in 2018?
The participants at the workshop had chances to listen to and interact with profound fund managers - Mr. Dao Phuc Tuong - Director of APS Investment Fund, Mr. Le Chi Phuc - General Director of SGI, the leader of large enterprise in the industry- Mr. Phan Dang Tuat, former Chairman of Sabeco; and business executive – Mr. Nguyen Quang Thuan, CEO of StoxPlus, to answer the above questions and get information needed for a sharper understanding of economic circles and investment opportunities in Vietnam’s stock market.
The following are key discussed topics and highlights from the workshop and result of the polls of the peak and trough of VNIndex in 2018:
(1) The story of economic cycle: The seminar agreed that the market is having big opportunities thanks to the improvement and stability of macroeconomic factors especially the recovery of the real estate industry as well as the improvement of the banking system and credit growth. However, many reminded that we are now in the period which is the same as 11 years ago in mid-2006 when the market excitement is so high, many new accounts are opened, foreign money flows increased sharply as well as high credit growth.
(2) Main stock market trend in 2018: Many people believe that 2018 will see waves of mid-caps and small caps instead of large caps after blue chips’ surge recently sent the VN Index up to multi-years high.
(3) The world oil price trend: This is an interesting topic with the recovery of oil and gas stocks on Vietnam’s stock market. Despite the impact of shale gas from the United States as an alternative fuel, most of the participants expected that oil prices would extend the up-swing and remain above $ 70 a barrel;
(4) New share supply: A number of stocks in the banking sector will be listed in the coming time. Because current banks’ valuation level is high compared to the region as well as to their own intrinsic value, there are many opinions that there are not many opportunities for upside or we will have to analyze each bank and it’s importance to look into not only their business strategy, retail advantage but also their IR strategy or pricing strategy of the bank's shareholders.
(5) Opportunities to invest in key sectors: Real Estate, Banking and Food & Beverage: Food and Beverage: Due to limited time frame, the seminar focused on the oil and gas sector, to-be listed stocks and companies in the F & B industry, especially stocks which are related to Sabeco after SAB was bought by Thai investor such as Chuong Duong Beverage, Thanh Hoa Beer, Hai Duong Beer, etc. and a series of Sabeco's associated companies.
Speakers and participants also interacted and discuss whether or not there is correlation between Vietnam stock market and Chinese stock market when the government start to equitize state-own enterprises and the politic contexts of the two countries. We will send in more details to FiinPro’s customers.
Survey results on VN-Index Peak and Trough 2018:
80 out of 100 participants in the workshop took part in the online survey on forecasting VnIndex's peak and trough in 2018. 33% of participants expect VNIndex to peak at 1200-1400 points in 2018, another 29% see the VNIndex to top at 1000-1200 point range, the other 25% are more bullish, expecting the index to hit 1400-1600 point area at a time; and 10% are extremely positive with expectation of over 1800 points for 2018.
On the opposite, the consensus was high that 92% of participants see the VnIndex would be lowest as 800-1000 points.
FiinPro Talk is a series of seminars organized by StoxPlus to create a sharing channel on topics of great interest to help customers gain access to in-depth information about the market, form their investment ideas or preserve assets as well as to provide opportunities to connect with industry experts. Customers can view the details of StoxPlus's next FiinPro Talk at http://fiinpro.com/Events
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Oct 22, 2018
The domestic real estate market has had a period of strong growth in the past five years, will this bull market continue and support real estate stocks to lead the market?
Oct 09, 2018
Banking stocks have been one of the market leading ones over the years. FiinPro data showed that banking stocks enjoyed a 3-digit growth for the past five years, up 154.1% versus VNIndex’s double-digit gain of 96.5%. Will the attractiveness of banking stocks remain in the last months of 2018 and in 2019?